SYS 660
Midterm Project
Spring 2022
Distribute on March 23, 2022
Due on April 5, 2022
Overview: This project is intended to showcase the skills you have learned in the course to date including mean and fundamental objectives, influence diagrams, decision tree, expected value, NPV, tradeoffs, probability and statistics, subjective probability, and the value of information. The text below is sufficient information as inputs to your models to get started. See the supplemental resources below for more detailed background information. Of course you can look for other resources as well.
Deliverable: A well-written and formatted pdf report (it should read like a single document, not a series of questions and their answers), no more than 6 pages in length including all figures and tables, discussing your analysis of the case below. Make sure you have your name on all pages of the report as well as page numbers. A separate title sheet and a table of contents is not necessary. Keep in mind this a report you are generating to help your client with decision making. You may use software tools to make diagrams or however you deem the tool to be useful. Having said that the project can be done using Microsoft Excel and no other software. Please only submit printouts (pdf/screenshots) of your models, including items like cell formulas for spreadsheets or other model assumptions as needed.
This is an open-ended assignment. There is no right or wrong answer. Instead you will be evaluated by the quality of your analysis. Quality of your analysis will not be clear to me unless you communicate and write coherently and thoroughly. There will most likely not be sufficient data to develop objective probability distributions. You may generate your own subjective probability distributions based on your interpretation of what you uncover during your research. Make sure that you justify your assumptions. This is a take-home mid-term exam. You may use any generally available research sources such as news articles and journal papers, but you may not discuss the exam with anyone. Please keep in mind that it would be highly unlikely to have two people having the same approach and results.
Grading criteria (equally weighted):
• Completeness of analysis
• Coherency of analysis
• Correct application of decision analysis tools
• Justification of decision model and assumptions
• Clarity of exposition and writing
• Proper referencing is critical (e.g. MLA, APA, Chicago)
DECIMAKE Inc.
SYS 660 Managing Director March 22, 2022
SYS 660, Inc.
1 Castle Point
Hoboken, NJ 07030
RE: COVID-19
Dear SYS 660 Managing Director:
COVID-19 has been impacting us all globally, nationally, and locally. The challenges we have been dealing with are expanding across many domains. COVID-19 outbreak is a human tragedy affecting thousands of people and the global economy. The situation is constantly evolving, resulting in varying implications. Therefore, we continue to require quick and robust analyses to prevent as much risk as possible, and if possible.
With the distribution of vaccines and the implementation of mask mandates, the number of COVID-19 infections and their variants has decreased. As a result, most local and state governments have decided to lift the mask mandates. In New Jersey, the mask mandate was lifted on March 7, 2022. However, the Federal government decided to keep the mask mandate at the airports and airplanes until April 18, 2022, based on CDC recommendations.
At DeciMake Inc., we are interested in expanding our understanding of the mask mandates and how they would impact the Stevens population if the mask mandate was lifted on campus. When this project is distributed, the Stevens community must wear masks in all indoor and outdoor spaces. We wish to use your expertise to help us decide if it would make sense for the Stevens leadership to lift the mask mandate for the remainder of the Spring semester. To conduct the analysis, please note the following:
- By the time this assignment is due (April 5, 2022), there will be about five weeks left until the end of the Spring semester.
- It is highly unlikely that the configurations of the campus and the courses (e.g., class size, location, etc.) change for the Spring semester.
Please note that although the problem seems to be open-ended, we are expecting a quantitative analysis that is based on facts and reasonable assumptions. Vast amounts of data are available on public platforms. We strongly encourage you to use data to come up with probability distributions, and where data is not available, use reasonable assumptions.
We are eager to receive the result of your analysis in a maximum of the 6-page report by April 5, 2022 end of the day.
Enclosed, please find a list of resources we thought might help you in your investigation. This is not an all-inclusive list; you might find some of the material more relevant than others.
Thanks in advance for your support on this.
Sincerely yours,
Yeganeh M. Hayeri, Ph.D.
DeciMake, Inc.
Resources:
http://covid19.healthdata.org/ https://github.com/CSSEGISandData
https://www.stevens.edu/about-stevens/covid-19-campus-operations-and-guidance/covid-19-dashboard https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-03-04/cdc-guidance-over-90-of-u-s-populationcan-drop-masks
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-02-25/most-americans-dont-need-to-wearmasks-indoors-under-new-cdc-covid-19-guidance
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/covid-by-county.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/masking-science-sars-cov2.html https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm