7. Session 5: Assessments
7.1 Assessment Task 1:
Assessment Task - Review: Retail Industry Statistics
Description:
The latest ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover fell 0.8% in July 2012, seasonally adjusted, following a rise of 1.2% in June 2012 (ABS, 2012).
The largest contributor to the fall was department stores ( 10.2%), followed by other retailing ( 2.8%) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing ( 0.9%). These falls were partially offset by rises in household goods retailing (2.4%), cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (0.3%) and food retailing (0.1%). The large fall in department stores follows a strong rise in the previous month. However, department stores remain the weakest performing industry over the longer term (down 0.5% in trend terms). The strongest performing industry over the longer term is cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (up 0.8% in trend terms) (ABS, 2012).
Using the Retail Trade Report from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS: 85010.0), analyse the current trends in the retail industry and compute some of the statistics as below;
• A summary of trends across Australia in July 2012
• A brief analysis of each retail industry included in the report
• Calculate arithmetic mean, median and mode of department stores original turnover in 2011 and 2012
• Compute standard deviation of the mean and show in a graphical format
• Calculate variance in the turnover trend (%) for department stores in 2012
• Analyse the top industry group performance in each of the states
• Analyse which state is the top performer across all the industry sectors
You may access other reports and statistics from ABS to complete your analyses. As this is a formative task, your trainer will provide you with the feedback as you complete each task and allow for reasonable corrections.
All external sources must be cited using the Harvard Referencing System. Written notes and analyses must be work processed and graphs and charts produced using a spreadsheet application.
7.1.1 Tips and hints for assessment 1
Information on retail trends for July 2012 can be accessed from the following link:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8501.0July%202012?OpenDocument
• A summary of trends across Australia in July 2012
Refer to key points in the retail trade 8501.0 pdf file and paraphrase in your own words and understanding.
• A brief analysis of each retail industry included in the report
Analyse different market trends based on retail industry groups included in the same report.
• Calculate arithmetic mean, median and mode of department stores original turnover in 2011 and 2012
The required information can be found in the same report on page 8. Following is an extract of the data required to perform the calculations. The highlighted area is the departmental stores original turnover values.
Before you start doing any calculations it’s a good idea to arrange the data in two tables like below to make it easy for calculations.
Table of original turnovers of departmental stores in a number of months of 2011
Month in 2011 Turnover in departmental stores in millions
May 1408.9
June 1471.9
July 1535.5
August 1293.5
September 1345.7
October 1404.7
November 1660.0
December 2730.5
Table of original turnovers of departmental stores in a number of months of 2012
Month in 2011 Turnover in departmental store in millions
January 1362.4
February 1131.7
March 1349.2
April 1391.2
May 1456.9
June 1616.4
July 1423.4
Hint: Although we usually rearrange the data according to numerical order when calculating the median, in both the above tables you should not rearrange the data as they are already in the ascending order of the month.
• Compute standard deviation of the mean and show in a graphical format
Use the following formula and sample calculation table to assist you derive standard deviation.
Sample calculation table
X (x-?) (x-?)2
Sum of all (x-?)2=
• Calculate variance in the turnover trend (%) for department stores in 2012
Use the following equation to find the variance:
As you can see variance is the square of standard deviation. Therefore if the standard deviation found for 2012 departmental stores is S, then the variance is S2
• Analyse the top industry group performance in each of the states
To answer this question, have a look at table 13-excel file in the above mentioned link.
Following is an example of an extract of trend data for industry groups in NSW state in July 2012. The top industry performer in this case is Food Retailing.
Industry Group Turnover (trend) for NSW in Jul-
2012 in millions
Supermarket and grocery stores
2147.9
Liquor retailing
273.7
Other specialised food retailing
223.4
Food retailing
2645.0
Furniture, floor coverings, houseware and textile goods retailing
293.9
Electrical and electronic goods retailing
438.2
Hardware, building and garden supplies retailing 330.6
Household goods retailing
1062.7
Clothing retailing
348.5
Footwear and other personal accessory retailing
185.7
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing
534.3
Department stores
480.0
Newspaper and book retailing
112.1
Other recreational goods retailing
93.5
Pharmaceutical, cosmetic and toiletry goods retailing
341.4
Other retailing n.e.c.
357.3
Other retailing
904.3
Cafes, restaurants and catering services
545.4
Takeaway food services
356.8
Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services
902.2
Turnover ; New South Wales ; Total (Industry)
6539.1
You need to do the same for other states. It is always easier to create a table like above for every state to clearly represent the data. Remember to include the total turnover in all industry groups at the end as this will help you answer the next question.
• Analyse which state is the top performer across all the industry sectors
To answer this question you need to have completed the previous question. Compare the total turnover of all industry groups of among the states to find out the best performing state.
7.2 Assessment task 2
Description:
ABS Retail Trade figures show that Australian retail turnover rose 0.5% in July 2011, seasonally adjusted, following a fall of 0.1% the previous month (ABS, 2012).
Turnover rose in Food retailing (0.8%), Other retailing (1.9%), Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (1.1%) and Department stores (1.2%). Turnover was relatively unchanged in Household goods retailing (0.0%).
Turnover fell in Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-4.2%). Turnover rose in New
South Wales (1.0%), Victoria (0.3%), Western Australia (0.7%), South Australia (0.8%), Tasmania (0.8%), Northern Territory (0.8%) and the Australian Capital Territory (0.1%). Turnover fell in Queensland (-0.2%) (ABS, 2012).
Myer is Australia’s largest department store group. Myer employs approximately 14,000 people and operates 67 stores across Australia with a turnover in excess of $3 billion annually, and has plans to grow to 80 stores across Australia (Myer, 2012). Business recovery period post the Global Financial Crisis, 2011 proved to be another challenging year for the company and the company is looking forward to planning ahead for 2012.
In this assessment task, you will assume the role of a Market Researcher, part of the marketing team at Myer.
In 2012, Myer will be implementing a large part of its store expansion plan and needs to understand the current market trends to appropriately plan the store and the merchandise. You have been given the responsibility of analysing the sector/industry performance Australia wide using the Retail Trade Reports from Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS: 85010.0: 2011) and analyse the trends to enable the company make business decisions.
A useful resource for this task would be a 2011 productivity commission report, Economic Structure and Performance of the Australian Retail Industry, available at:
www.biaa.com.au/resources/Consultations/PC-Report-Aust-Retail.pdf
You may use the data/analysis completed in Assessment Task1 as a trend for 2012 where appropriate. A 2011 annual report is also provided for your reference to identify areas of under or over performance. You may also conduct some online research on changing industry dynamics. Using the annual report, ABS reports, and online research, complete the following tasks;
.
1. Analyse changing demographic trends in major capital cities across all the states
2. Analyse changes in technology
3. Analyse changes in consumer buying habits and preferences
4. Analyse economic trends (2011)
5. Analyse social and culture factors affecting the retail industry
6. Summarise retail industry trend analysis (2011)
7. Calculate measures of central tendency (Mean, median and mode) of consumer spending per household in 2011
8. Calculate standard deviation in household spending
9. Calculate measures of central tendency (Mean, median and mode) of consumer spending on online purchases 2011
10. Calculate standard deviation in online purchasing
11. Among the highest online spenders in or state, calculate a Z-test to calculate how far the sample mean is to the population mean
Your analysis should be contained within a report-style document written in a formal style appropriate for corporate audiences. All external sources must be cited using the Harvard Referencing System. Written notes and analyses must be work processed and graphs and charts produced using a spreadsheet application.
7.2.1 Tips and hints for assessment 2
Useful links of reports to complete this task:
o 2011 Productivity commission report:
www.biaa.com.au/resources/Consultations/PC-Report-Aust-Retail.pdf o Retail trade report ABS December 2011:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8501.0Dec%202011?OpenDocument o Demographic trends 2011 http://blog.corelogic.com.au/2012/04/population-centralizationthe-australian-way/ o Retail work force study
http://www.awpa.gov.au/our-work/sector-specific-skillneeds/Documents/Retail%20workforce%20study.pdf o Household expenditure survey 2009-2010
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/CB07CC895DCE2829CA2579020015D8FD
/$File/65300_2009-10.pdf o Pwc report on online expenditure of Australians in 2012 http://www.pwc.com.au/industry/retail-consumer/assets/Digital-Media-Online-Shopping-Jul12.pdf
1. Analyse changing demographic trends in major capital cities across all the states
Use the above link for demographic trends 2011 to find your answers. Use tables in the site in your answers to make it presentable and clear.
2. Analyse changes in technology
Use the information in productivity commission report (link mentioned above). There is useful information on e-commerce and developments in internet from page 75.
3. Analyse changes in consumer buying habits and preferences
Refer to retail trade report for answers.
4. Analyse economic trends (2011)
Refer to retail trade report for answers.
5. Analyse social and culture factors affecting the retail industry
Refer to retail work force study. Pg60 – new markets and products and pg 62- Consumer demand for sustainable and ethical practices.
6. Summarise retail industry trend analysis (2011)
Refer to retail trade report for answers.
7. Calculate measures of central tendency (Mean, median and mode) of consumer spending per household in 2011
For this task use the household expenditure survey report mentioned in the links in the previous page. In the report under list of tables use the 1st table which is household expenditure 1984 to 2009-10. And use the 2009-10 figures for calculations. Following is an extract of the table and the area highlighted represent the data to be used for this task.
Refer to section 7.1.1 for notes on how to calculate standard deviation.
9. Calculate measures of central tendency (Mean, median and mode) of consumer spending on online purchases 2011
Since there is no usable data for year 2011, use the table 15 in Pwc report on online expenditure. In the following extract, the highlighted area it shows what information to be used for this task.
10. Calculate standard deviation in online purchasing
Refer to section 5.6 Measures of Dispersion (pg 23) for notes on how to calculate standard deviation.
11. Among the highest online spenders in or state, calculate a Z-test to calculate how far the sample mean is to the population mean
Since we used the online expenditure data of the Pwc report in part 9, find the Z score of the online expenditure for product category: Books and magazines.
The equation to calculate Z-score is as follows:
(Where X is the online expenditure for Books and Magazines in this case)
7.3 Assessment task 3
Description:
This assessment task is continuation of Assessment Task 2. You had completed an analysis of industry trends for Myer Ltd in the previous tasks. These analyses play an important role in making business decisions based on under and over performing areas.
Continuing in your same role as a Market Researcher, part of the marketing team at Myer, use the data developed in the previous assessment task, Myer’s annual report (2011) and complete the following;
1. Describe the target market segment for marketing activities based on demographic and psychographic matches
2. Conduct a competitor analysis (e.g. David Jones) on a state to state basis using public domain information (media reports, annual reports etc.)
3. Make recommendations on which areas the company should focus on for the future growth
4. Make recommendations on which areas the company should review for redevelopment or withdrawal
5. Recommend an appropriate forecasting tool and methodology that the company can use to forecast future trends
Once you have completed your analyses and recommendations, summarise and present your data to the class audience, assuming they are your target corporate audience. Your presentation should focus on presentation of market data and outcomes of your analyses using appropriate text, graphs and charts as needed. The presentation should be short, succinct, clear, and structured for the ease of the audiences.
Your analysis and report should be contained within a report style document written in a formal style appropriate for corporate audiences. All external sources must be cited using the Harvard Referencing System.
Written notes and analyses must be work processed and graphs and charts produced using a spreadsheet application.
7.3.1 Tips and hints for assessment 3
1. Describe the target market segment for marketing activities based on demographic and psychographic matches
Demographic factors are socioeconomic characteristics of a population expressed statistically, such as age, sex, education level, income level, marital status, occupation, religion, birth rate, death rate, average size of a family, average age at marriage. A census is a collection of the demographic factors associated with every member of a population.
Psychographic segmentation is dividing the market based upon consumer personality traits, values, attitudes, interests and lifestyles. Segmentation allows to better develop and market products because there will be a more precise match between the product and each segment's needs and wants.
The definitions mentioned above are not the answer. You need to research and write in a few sentences about the target audience of Myer. When you write your answer consider different segments, demographic and psychographic factors of the target market.
2. Conduct a competitor analysis (e.g. David Jones) on a state to state basis using public domain information (media reports, annual reports etc.)
Research about Myer’s biggest competitor, David Jones and write few paragraphs stating information on the competition between the two, market share data, yearly incomes and revenues, investments and etc.
Also refer to section 5.12 Analysing your Competitors on pg 30.
3. Make recommendations on which areas the company should focus on for the future growth
Refer to the Myer’s 2011 annual report available online.
4. Make recommendations on which areas the company should review for redevelopment or withdrawal
Refer to the Myer’s 2011 annual report available online.
5. Recommend an appropriate forecasting tool and methodology that the company can use to forecast future trends
What are your thoughts on this? Can Myer use a forecasting tool or methodology to identify future trends? Direct your thoughts on how analyzing the currently available/past data can play a central part in predicting future trends.
GET ANSWERS / LIVE CHAT