ASSESSMENT BRIEF
Subject Code and Title STAT 6003: Statistics for Financial Decisions
Assessment Assessment 3: Report
Individual/Group Individual
Length NA
Learning Outcomes 1. Analyse and present data graphically using spreadsheet software (Excel).
2. Critically evaluate summary statistics against suitable benchmarks.
3. Apply judgement to select appropriate methods of data analysis drawing on knowledge of regression analysis, probability, probability distributions and sampling distributions.
4. Select and apply a range of data analysis tools to inform problem solving and decision making.
5. Conduct quantitative research both individually and as part of a team and articulate and present findings to a wide range of stakeholders, from accounting and nonaccounting backgrounds.
Submission By 11:55pm AEST/AEDT Sunday one week after Module 6
Weighting 50%
Total Marks 100 marks
Context:
The report asks students to apply their knowledge on the concepts and ideas discussed during the Modules in a comprehensive work. The report allows students to reflect back on their previous learning performances and outcomes, and to make use of previous submissions.
Instructions:
You are expected to submit a report that requires you to apply your knowledge from all Modules and draws links between the scenario and the learning resources. Furthermore, you are expected to incorporate feedback given to your short written assessments (assessment no.1) and feedback provided to your presentation (assessment no. 2) in your final report. Your answers should reflect upon and analyse issues of the key discussion points of the Modules. Your answers should also effectively communicate and demonstrate that key concepts covered during this course can be applied by you in a comprehensive manner. The report also asks you to apply critical thinking and analysis.
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Report and presentation
As discussed above, your final two assessments are inter-linked:
- Assessment 3 requires you to write a report.
- For Assessment 2 you are to present the preliminary findings of your report (Assessment 3). o The presentation (Assessment 2) provides you with an opportunity to receive feedback from the learning facilitator which you are then to implement and address in your final report.
Introduction:
1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020
The Board of Directors of Schmeckt Gut instructs you to write a report of the development of sales in Industria, Nokaragua and the Federated Islands over the past 25 years.
Furthermore, the board would like you to use forecasting methodologies to project the sales for the next 5 years (until 2020) by applying reasonable assumptions based on the data provided and your analysis. Additional details are provided below.
2. Market place Sweden – Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020
Schmeckt Gut has recently entered the Swedish market and the Board is interested in an estimate of this year’s sales as well as potential sales for the next 5 years (until 2020).
Additional details are provided below.
Data set:
The excel file provides you with four data sets for the 4 countries of interest which include:
• Sales figures in US$ (not available for Sweden)
• GDP data in US$
• Average Price Index (in %)
• Population (15-65 years of age)
• Survey score – this is the average result of a customer satisfaction survey (0=not satisfies, 10=very satisfied)
• Number of average advertisements
• Number of stores
All data is exogenous and independent except in their relation with the sales figures.
Detailed tasks
1. Analysis of sales and country data, forecasting of sales figures until 2020
• Provide a statistical overview of the data provided in the excel sheets for each country (you can also do a comparison analysis)
• Conduct a correlation analysis between sales development and:
o (i) advertisements, (ii) number of stores and (iii) the survey results
• Conduct a multi regression time series analysis and use the results to forecast the sales until 2020. o Hint: You should use natural logs (ln) for your analysis as discussed in your assignment of Module 5. o For your reasonable assumptions which are required for the forecasting, you should apply hypothesis testing techniques for the GDP, Prices and Population developments.
? For example, if you forecast a GDP growth of 3.5%, knowing the past GDP growth figures, is the forecast of 3.5% an acceptable growth figure for the forecast or should that Null hypothesis be rejected?
2. Market place Sweden – Estimate of potential sales figures in 2016 and forecast to 2020
• Based on your analysis in part 1, which country (Industria, Federated Islands, Nokaragua) is closest related to Sweden? Justify your selection. o Hint: Look at average GDP per capita statistics (GDP divided by Population) and Price Index.
• Once you have identified the country that is closet related to Sweden, use that country’s characteristics of the analysis undertaken in the first part to estimate/forecast the potential sales for the Swedish market. o Use the forecasts from the IMF to project GDP growth rates and a potential price index (CPI or Inflation rate) for the years 2016 to 2020.
? See pg 40 of the ‘IMF 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION’ report for Sweden for the data.
3. Other suggestions
- Based on your analysis in parts 1 and 2, are there any other suggestions you have for the Board on how Schmeckt Gut can boost sales in the countries?
Your presentation:
- Create a presentation (for example with PowerPoint) and turn your presentation into a video.
o See https://support.office.com/en-us/article/Turn-your-presentation-into-avideo-c140551f-cb37-4818-b5d4-3e30815c3e83 for details should you decide to use PowerPoint
o You can also use any other suitable programs
- Present your main results that will assist the Board in their decision making o Focus on the main results and explain which techniques you have applied to achieve these results and why you used these techniques.
o What do these results imply?
o What are your main recommendations? - Your presentation should not be longer than 15 minutes - Submit your narrated video on Blackboard.
Learning Rubrics
Assessment Attributes Fail (Unacceptable) Pass (Functional) Credit (Proficient) Distinction (Advanced) High Distinction (Exceptional)
Grade Description (Grading Scheme)
Evidence of unsatisfactory achievement of one or more
of the learning objectives of the course, insufficient
understanding of the course
content and/or unsatisfactory level of skill development. Evidence of satisfactory achievement of course learning objectives, the development of
relevant skills to a competent level, and adequate
interpretation and critical analysis skills. Evidence of a good level of understanding, knowledge and skill development in relation to the content of the course or work of a superior quality on the majority of the learning objectives of the course. Demonstration of a high level of interpretation and critical analysis skills.
Evidence of a high level of achievement of the
learning objectives of the
course demonstrated in such areas as interpretation and critical analysis, logical
argument, use of
methodology and communication skills. Evidence of an exceptional level of achievement of learning objectives across the entire content of the course demonstrated in
such areas as interpretation and critical analysis, logical argument, creativity, originality, use of
methodology and communication skills.
Content, Audience
and Purpose
Points for this criteria Does not meet minimum
standard
Demonstrates no awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment.
Meets minimum standard
Demonstrates limited awareness of context and/or
purpose of the assignment
Moves beyond minimum
standard
Demonstrates consistent awareness of context and/or purpose of the assignment.
Exceeds minimum
standard
Demonstrates an advanced and integrated understanding of context and/or purpose of the assignment.
Exceeds minimum standard and exhibits
high levels of independence
Consistently demonstrates a systematic and critical understanding of context and purpose of the assignment.
Knowledge and
understanding
Limited understanding of required concepts and
knowledge
Knowledge or understanding of the field or discipline.
Resembles a recall or summary of key ideas. Thorough knowledge or understanding of the field or discipline/s. Supports personal opinion and information substantiated by Highly developed understanding of the field or discipline/s.
A sophisticated understanding of the field or discipline/s.
Points for this criteria
Key components of the assignment are not addressed.
Often conflates/confuses assertion of personal opinion with information substantiated by evidence from the research/course materials.
evidence from the research/course materials.
Demonstrates a capacity to explain and apply relevant concepts.
Discriminates between assertion of personal opinion and information substantiated by robust evidence from the research/course materials and extended reading.
Well demonstrated capacity to explain and apply relevant concepts. Systematically and critically discriminates between assertion of personal opinion and information substantiated by robust evidence from the research/course materials and extended reading.
Mastery of concepts and application to new situations/further learning.
Critical reasoning, presentation and defence of an argument and/or
position
Specific position (perspective or argument) fails to take into account the complexities of the issue(s) or scope of the assignment.
Makes assertions that are not justified.
Specific position (perspective or argument) begins to take into account the issue(s) or scope of the assignment.
Justifies any conclusions reached with arguments not merely assertion.
Specific position (perspective or argument) takes into account the complexities of the issue(s) or scope of the assignment. Others’ points of view are acknowledged.
Justifies any conclusions reached with well-formed arguments not merely assertion.
Specific position (perspective or argument) is expertly presented and accurately takes into account the complexities of the issue(s) and scope of the assignment.
Justifies any conclusions reached with welldeveloped arguments.
Specific position (perspective or argument) is presented expertly, authoritatively and imaginatively, accurately taking into account the complexities of the issue(s) and scope of the assignment. Limits of position are acknowledged.
Justifies any conclusions
reached with sophisticated arguments.
Analysis and application with synthesis of new knowledge
Limited synthesis and analysis.
Limited application/recommendations based upon analysis.
Demonstrated analysis and synthesis of new knowledge with application.
Shows the ability to interpret relevant information and literature.
Well-developed analysis and synthesis with application of recommendations linked to analysis/synthesis.
Thoroughly developed and creative analysis and synthesis with application of pretested models and / or independently
developed models and
justified
recommendations linked
to analysis/synthesis
Highly sophisticated and creative analysis, synthesis of new with existing knowledge.
Strong application by way of pretested models and / or independently developed models. Recommendations are clearly justified based on the analysis/synthesis. Applying knowledge to new situations/other cases.
Ethico moral reasoning
(recognises ethical and moral issues within a discipline and is able to reason based on these principles)
Difficulty in formulating own opinion and lack of recognition of ethical principles and competing interests.
Does not clearly demonstrate moral-ethical reasoning.
Difficulty in justifying conclusions based on moralethical principles but recognises different viewpoints.
Conclusions are justified based on moral-ethical principles.
Formulates and justifies conclusions based on moral-ethical principles.
Can recognise the competing interests in arguments and identify ethical issues embodied in them.
Uses ethical principles to identify competing interests and views.
Sophisticated understanding of the ethical and moral positions.
Well-articulated viewpoint based on moral-ethical reasoning.
Use of academic and
discipline conventions and sources of evidence
Poorly written with errors in spelling, grammar.
Demonstrates inconsistent use of good quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop ideas.
There are mistakes in using the APA style.
Is written according to academic genre (e.g. with introduction, conclusion or summary) and has accurate spelling, grammar, sentence and paragraph construction.
Demonstrates consistent use of credible and relevant research sources to support and develop ideas, but these are not always explicit or well developed.
There are no mistakes in using the APA style.
Is well-written and adheres to the academic genre (e.g. with introduction, conclusion or summary).
Demonstrates consistent use of high quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop ideas.
There are no mistakes in using the APA style.
Is very well-written and adheres to the academic genre.
Consistently demonstrates expert use of good quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop appropriate arguments and statements. Shows evidence of reading
beyond the key reading
There are no mistakes in using the APA style.
Expertly written and adheres to the academic genre.
Demonstrates expert use of high-quality, credible and relevant research sources to support and develop arguments and position statements. Shows extensive evidence of reading beyond the key
reading
There are no mistakes in using the APA Style.
Effective communication
Difficult to understand for audience, no logical/clear structure, poor flow of ideas, argument lacks supporting evidence.
No effort is made to keep audience engaged, audience cannot follow the line of reasoning.
Little use of presentation aids, or the presentation aids and material used are irrelevant.
Information, arguments and evidence are presented in a way that is not always clear and logical.
Attempts are made to keep the audience engaged, but not always successful. Line of reasoning is often difficult to follow.
Presentation aids are used more for effect than relevance.
Information, arguments and evidence are well presented, mostly clear flow of ideas and arguments.
The audience is mostly engaged, line of reasoning is easy to follow.
Effective use of presentation aids.
Information, arguments and evidence are very well presented, the presentation is logical, clear and well supported by evidence.
Engages the audience, demonstrates cultural sensitivity.
Carefully and well prepared presentations aids are used.
Expertly presented; the presentation is logical, persuasive, and well supported by evidence, demonstrating a clear flow of ideas and arguments.
Engages and sustains audience’s interest in the topic, demonstrates high levels of cultural
sensitivity
Effective use of diverse presentation aids, including graphics and multi-media.
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